When the game stops, where will the buck stop?

There have been tons of takes and articles written about GameStop. The vast majority are really wrong, and most of the good ones assume a lot of background. This post is my attempt to provide an explanation of what happened without assuming any background. This necessarily involves lots of simplifications (so if I get something … Continue reading When the game stops, where will the buck stop? →

Are we due for another recession? Probably.

Perhaps the most famous statistical fallacy is the gambler's fallacy. To quote Wikipedia, the gambler's fallacy is "the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa)." The canonical example of the fallacy is gamblers who reason that, since … Continue reading Are we due for another recession? Probably. →