All posts

Here’s a list of all of my blog posts! Posts I consider to be in the better third or so (or are popular) are marked with a *, and the ones I’m most proud of are bolded. Posts that use a lot of math are marked with an (M).

*(M) How much do you believe your results? (2023-05-05)

Grading my 2021 predictions (2022-04-17)

Introducing EA-nasir (2022-04-01)

Puzzle: A More Earthly Calendar (2021-11-24)

Make the tennis service box smaller (2021-08-30)

* Lexeme jest: Eleven excellent genres (2021-08-13)

Can group identity be a force for good? (2021-07-04)

My NYC mayoral ballot (2021-06-08)

* Social behavior curves, equilibria, and radicalism (2021-06-05)

My favorite puzzles from the 2021 MIT Mystery Hunt (2021-03-29)

Luck and skill in beauty pageants (2021-03-26)

When the game stops, where will the buck stop? (2021-02-18)

* Pseudorandomness contest: Prizes, results, and analysis (2021-01-15)

Grading my 2020 predictions (2021-01-06)

Overall numbers won’t show the English strain coming (2021-01-03)

Predictions for 2021 (2020-12-31)

* Alike minds think great (2020-12-26)

Pseudorandomness contest, Round 2 (2020-12-20)

Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1 (2020-12-13)

Virtue points (2020-12-10)

Was Nate Silver’s model wrong? (2020-12-07)

Puzzle solution/hints/comments: Losers and Winners (2020-11-30)

(M) An elegant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession (2020-11-29)

A pragmatic guide to voting in the 2020 election (2020-10-08)

Your vote matters — probably more than you think (2020-10-08)

Puzzle: Losers and Winners (2020-09-15)

* Pooled COVID testing in the real world (2020-09-07)

* Jelle’s marbles have skill (2020-09-06)

Puzzle solution/hints: A Choral Arrangement (2020-08-20)

An exploration of exploitation bias (2020-07-05)

Against “read or defer” norms (2020-06-27)

* Puzzle: A Choral Arrangement (2020-05-07)

Chris the Criminal: A mathematical puzzle (2020-05-01)

* How to test and trace if you don’t have enough tests (2020-04-26)

*(M) Scoring rules part 3: Incentivizing precision (2020-04-24)

(M) Scoring rules part 2: Calibration does not imply classification (2020-02-14)

(M) Scoring rules part 1: Eliciting truthful predictions (2020-02-14)

* Thoughts on the 2020 Democratic presidential primary (2020-02-02)

* My favorite puzzles from the 2020 MIT Mystery Hunt (2020-01-24)

My 2020 Democratic primary predictions pass the smell test (2020-01-10)

Predictions for 2020 (2019-12-29)

(M) Pete’s problem (2019-12-28)

*(M) Beyond the mean, median, and mode (2019-12-26)

* Finding Shawn Mendes (2019-11-26)

Should FiveThirtyEight’s elasticity index have a wider spread? (2019-11-08)

A few things to watch this Tuesday (2019-11-04)

* What to do about undefined expectations? (2019-11-02)

*(M) Lofty expectations (2019-10-02)

General election polls *are* predictive one year out (2019-09-29)

(M) Least squares regression isn’t arbitrary (2019-09-17)

*(M) Incentives in the election-charity platform (2019-09-15)

Provisional opposition (2019-09-12)

Are we due for another recession? Probably. (2019-09-10)

* Getting money out of politics… and into charity (2019-09-08)