Here’s a list of all of my blog posts! Posts I consider to be in the better third or so (or are popular) are marked with a *, and the ones I’m most proud of are bolded. Posts that use a lot of math are marked with an (M).
*(M) How much do you believe your results? (2023-05-05)
Grading my 2021 predictions (2022-04-17)
Introducing EA-nasir (2022-04-01)
Puzzle: A More Earthly Calendar (2021-11-24)
Make the tennis service box smaller (2021-08-30)
* Lexeme jest: Eleven excellent genres (2021-08-13)
Can group identity be a force for good? (2021-07-04)
My NYC mayoral ballot (2021-06-08)
* Social behavior curves, equilibria, and radicalism (2021-06-05)
My favorite puzzles from the 2021 MIT Mystery Hunt (2021-03-29)
Luck and skill in beauty pageants (2021-03-26)
When the game stops, where will the buck stop? (2021-02-18)
* Pseudorandomness contest: Prizes, results, and analysis (2021-01-15)
Grading my 2020 predictions (2021-01-06)
Overall numbers won’t show the English strain coming (2021-01-03)
Predictions for 2021 (2020-12-31)
* Alike minds think great (2020-12-26)
Pseudorandomness contest, Round 2 (2020-12-20)
Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1 (2020-12-13)
Virtue points (2020-12-10)
Was Nate Silver’s model wrong? (2020-12-07)
Puzzle solution/hints/comments: Losers and Winners (2020-11-30)
(M) An elegant proof of Laplace’s rule of succession (2020-11-29)
A pragmatic guide to voting in the 2020 election (2020-10-08)
Your vote matters — probably more than you think (2020-10-08)
Puzzle: Losers and Winners (2020-09-15)
* Pooled COVID testing in the real world (2020-09-07)
* Jelle’s marbles have skill (2020-09-06)
Puzzle solution/hints: A Choral Arrangement (2020-08-20)
An exploration of exploitation bias (2020-07-05)
Against “read or defer” norms (2020-06-27)
* Puzzle: A Choral Arrangement (2020-05-07)
Chris the Criminal: A mathematical puzzle (2020-05-01)
* How to test and trace if you don’t have enough tests (2020-04-26)
*(M) Scoring rules part 3: Incentivizing precision (2020-04-24)
(M) Scoring rules part 2: Calibration does not imply classification (2020-02-14)
(M) Scoring rules part 1: Eliciting truthful predictions (2020-02-14)
* Thoughts on the 2020 Democratic presidential primary (2020-02-02)
* My favorite puzzles from the 2020 MIT Mystery Hunt (2020-01-24)
My 2020 Democratic primary predictions pass the smell test (2020-01-10)
Predictions for 2020 (2019-12-29)
(M) Pete’s problem (2019-12-28)
*(M) Beyond the mean, median, and mode (2019-12-26)
* Finding Shawn Mendes (2019-11-26)
Should FiveThirtyEight’s elasticity index have a wider spread? (2019-11-08)
A few things to watch this Tuesday (2019-11-04)
* What to do about undefined expectations? (2019-11-02)
*(M) Lofty expectations (2019-10-02)
General election polls *are* predictive one year out (2019-09-29)
(M) Least squares regression isn’t arbitrary (2019-09-17)
*(M) Incentives in the election-charity platform (2019-09-15)
Provisional opposition (2019-09-12)
Are we due for another recession? Probably. (2019-09-10)
* Getting money out of politics… and into charity (2019-09-08)
Unexpected Values 