Predictions for 2021

Just as I did last year, I have some probabilistic predictions for 2021. In January 2022 I will return to grade them, just as in a week or two I'll grade my 2020 predictions. This year the predictions fall into four categories: U.S. politics (#1-17 below), COVID (#18-39), Miscellaneous (#40-53), and Personal (#54-100). Note that … Continue reading Predictions for 2021 →

Alike minds think great

I. It is famously the case that almost everyone thinks they're above average. Derek Sivers writes: Ninety-four percent of professors say they are better-than-average teachers.Ninety percent of students think they are more intelligent than the average student.Ninety-three percent of drivers say they are safer-than-average drivers. Interesting. Intuitively this seems to suggest that people are prone … Continue reading Alike minds think great →

Pseudorandomness contest, Round 2

Results -- as well as a thorough analysis that you might find interesting even if you did not participate -- are now available! Last week, I asked you all to take 10 minutes to write down and submit a 150-bit string, with the goal of making your string "seem random" without the aid of any … Continue reading Pseudorandomness contest, Round 2 →

Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1

(Also part of this series: Round 2; and prizes and results -- which you might find interesting even if you didn't participate!) I've decided to run a pseudorandomness contest -- a reverse Turing test of sorts, if you will. Winners will get to send some of my money to a charity of their choice! Here's … Continue reading Pseudorandomness contest, Round 1 →

Virtue points

One great way to hold yourself accountable to your goals and resolutions is Beeminder. Beeminder is an app that works as such: You give them your credit card information.You set goals (exercise for 15 minutes today; finish the report by Monday; read Wuthering Heights by February) along with wagers ($5; $20; $50).When a deadline passes, … Continue reading Virtue points →

Was Nate Silver’s model wrong?

Nate Silver's model at FiveThirtyEight gave Biden an 89% chance to win the presidential election. He gave Democrats a 75% chance of taking back the Senate and a 97% chance of keeping the House. Then the election happened. Biden won -- though by a somewhat smaller margin than the model expected: Trump's 232 electoral votes … Continue reading Was Nate Silver’s model wrong? →