How to test and trace if you don’t have enough tests

[Edit: I now have a follow-up post that adapts this analysis to real-world constraints!] As we continue our worldwide fight with the coronavirus, many countries are looking to gradually transition away from strict lockdowns and toward effective test-and-trace programs. The idea is that if we can test people on a mass scale and track down …

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Scoring rules part 3: Incentivizing precision

[This is Part 3 of a three-part series on scoring rules. If you aren’t familiar with scoring rules, you should read Part 1 before reading this post. You don't need to read Part 2, but I think it's pretty cool.] In 9th grade I learned the difference between accuracy and precision from a classroom poster. …