Scoring rules part 2: Calibration does not imply classification

[This is Part 2 of a three-part series on scoring rules. If you aren't familiar with scoring rules (and Brier's quadratic scoring rule in particular), you should read Part 1 before reading this post. If you'd like, you can skip straight to Part 3.] One of the most important skills of good probabilistic forecasting is …

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Scoring rules part 1: Eliciting truthful predictions

Yesterday I submitted for publication a paper I've been working on for a long time. The paper was on scoring rules, which I think are really interesting. In this three-part series, I'll tell you a bit about scoring rules and hopefully convey why I find them so cool. In this post I'll define scoring rules …

Thoughts on the 2020 Democratic presidential primary

This post is an endorsement of a Democratic candidate for president, but it is not a typical endorsement. When I set out to write this post, I didn't have a particular conclusion in mind. Instead, I figured out how I wanted to think about the primary, then did research on the underlying facts, and finally …